From: RBC (Russian Business Channel) TV, the main Russian business TV-channel.
In the Russian territories
The President RF Vladimir Putin proposed to Japan the new round of negotiations on the territorial disputes between two countries. The discussion deals with the notorious Kurile Islands, which de facto belong to Russia, but to which persistently continue to pretend the Japanese. And although the present prime minister of Japan Yasuo Fukuda is considered as the relatively loyal with respect to Moscow politician, into the fact that the conflict will be resolved in mutual agreement, almost no one it believes. On the contrary, the increasing militarization of Japan even with the authority of "moderate" Fukuda - the straight sign of the fact that official of Tokyo actually is already ready to war, count experts. And the main targets of Japanese militarists will be more than only Sakhalin and Kurily.
As experts assert, there is a whole series of facts, which makes it possible to speak, that Tokyo with the high portion of probability prepares to unleash war. "Japan is the only country in the world, which survived nuclear bombing. And only it has a confident psychological feeling of the fact that, of course, this is terrible, but not mortally, i.e., this can be survived. In the Japanese this feeling fortifies itself by real historical experience ", said in the conversation with RBK daily the expert of research group "The construction of future" Sergey Pereslegin. In other words, in contrast to all remaining powers, which shake from one reference about the nuclear war, for Japan this is not completely determent factor for unbinding of military actions.
Japan actually evaluates this its most important trump, and therefore, in spite of the legislatively fixed in the constitution of the country principle of "pacifism", for a period of many years it already conducts internal preparation for the war. Even from the beginning 1990- X it is annual the government of the country it began to increase financing defense, and Japanese reformers attempt to now attain the adoption of correction to the constitution of 1947, which will make it possible to enlarge the authorities of the forces of defense. Even now Japanese fleet is the most powerful Pacific Ocean fleet, to say nothing of the fact that the country possesses two seagoing aircraft carriers, one of which according to the power exceeds American. Furthermore, participating in the peacemaking programs of UN, Japanese servicemen obtain a good practical experience. "Japanese society is today mobilized, and army is well trained", noted in the conversation with RBK daily the leader of the service of strategic planning of the association of near-boundary collaboration Aleksandr Sobyanin.
And if aircraft carriers, peacemakers and ships of Japanese fleet to the inexperienced observers can be and truth they are not noticeable not in order to judge the increasing militarization of Japan, it is sufficiently simple to estimate the aggressive nature of popular in entire peace Japanese of anime-culture and cinema. "The active and aggressively disposed Japanese young people, which now rigidly is extruded to the social bottom, plus aggressive anime-culture - one additional accurate sign of the fact that explosive situation not to avoid", said Sergey Pereslegin.
In other words, as experts consider, the road of Japan leads by its direct method to the war. However, reason to that is commonplace - the shortage of resources, which will become increasingly more sharply with each year. From this point of view the military actions can be untied by Tokyo in three directions. "Most important of them - this Australia. The second on the significance - North China and our Far East (South Yakutiya, Amur region, Primorskiy Kray, and also East Baykal). And the third direction - Latin America", notes Aleksandr Sobyanin.
Moreover probability that Japan will attempt first of all the Russian territories, fortifies itself by several factors. First, by the absence of legally fixed status of the peace between our countries. "Japan can begin war with Russia at any moment. Even if by this time some peaceful agreements are concluded, this in principle also will not be able to prevent the Japanese aggression to our side. In the world practice there was already the corresponding precedent of attack on the country around international jurisdiction - the invasion OF THE USA into Iraq in 2003 ", says Mr. Pereslegin. Therefore dispute about Kurilakh as the reason for the beginning of the military actions of Japan against Russia will play here no role, as it is accepted to think about this.
In the second place, Russian far-eastern territories - some of most those not protected and sparsely populated, which already makes with their vulnerable for the external interference. the "umbrella" of Russian ABOUT is expanded only above Moscow and above the small part of Siberia, to which the Japanese do not pretend ", adds Aleksandr sobyanin. At the same time in South Yakutiya and East Transbaykal are all resources, which now so requires Japan - oil, gas and uranium.
On Sakhalin and Kurilakh there is only oil, therefore, according to the experts, the final goal of Japanese aggression they appear not will. As considers Aleksandr Sobyanin, Japanese army will be able to move by several thousand kilometers into the depths of the Russian territories. The fact that this small war of Tokyo is necessary, practically no one doubts. "will end it by victory or by the defeat of Japan, it is already unimportant. War is necessary to this country - if it even does not obtain the necessary resources, the aggression begun by it will make it possible to splash out the aggressive military potential accumulated inside in recent years ", added Sergey pereslegin. Furthermore, this will also allow Tokyo to initiate the global repartition of resources and the revision of the sums World War II in its interests.
IRINA TSAREGORODTSEVA
08.02.2008
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